Navigating trade tariff uncertainty for fresh produce growers and buyers

The fresh produce industry operates in a complex and delicate ecosystem. Unlike sectors that deal in durable goods, this industry is uniquely vulnerable to the sudden shocks of trade policy shifts due to the perishable nature of its products, strict seasonal cycles, and an intricately woven, globally interconnected supply chain. The threat of a tariff, even if it is never implemented, can be as disruptive as a full-blown trade dispute. The inherent fragility means that a change in trade policy, whether it’s a tariff, a quota, or a new regulation, cannot be easily absorbed without significant risk to growers, buyers, and consumers.

Unseen costs of uncertainty

The core challenge for the fresh produce sector is not just the financial burden of tariffs, but the pervasive atmosphere of unpredictability. According to Rebeckah Freeman Adcock, Vice President of U.S. Government Relations for the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA), the very threat of tariffs on products from key trading partners creates an "untenable, unenviable situation" for businesses across the supply chain. This sentiment reveals a profound business reality: the uncertainty itself is the primary issue, a force that erodes the foundation of long-term planning and investment.

The business of fresh produce, for both growers and buyers, depends on strategic foresight. Growers must plan their production needs, secure financing, and make significant capital investments in equipment and technology, all based on marketplace contracts and forecasts that span months, or even years, into the future. Similarly, retailers and food service buyers must make their sourcing and purchasing decisions well in advance to ensure a stable, year-round supply of produce. In this article we have focused mainly on the tariff dynamic facing North American growers, including some resources and broad strategies to cope with the unpredictability as best as possible.

When the threat of tariffs introduces the potential for unforeseen costs and market closures, this entire planning framework collapses, making it difficult to confidently plant a crop or sign a supply contract. This instability extends beyond individual businesses, contributing to the broader agricultural trade deficit in North America. The unpredictability punishes those least able to absorb it, leading to increased volatility, higher transport costs, and disrupted financial flows. In this environment, a company's ability to operate is less about responding to a specific policy and more about navigating a continuous state of flux.

A look at commodities and trade partners

The current trade landscape is not a single, isolated event, but a series of overlapping and dynamic policies that affect the fresh produce industry on multiple fronts. The highly integrated trade relationship between the United States, Canada, and Mexico is particularly susceptible to these changes, as the three countries operate as a single co-dependent system to ensure a robust, year-round supply of fresh produce for North American consumers.

Specific tariff actions have been levied on key commodities within this region. For example, a document from the Canadian Produce Marketing Association (CPMA) from March 4, 2025, detailed a 25% tariff on specific US products entering Canada. This list included a number of high-value produce items that are essential to the North American food system. Counter measure tariffs imposed on US imports into Canada can be found on this list here.

The table below outlines the current tariff landscape for fresh produce as of September 2025:

If you are like us and are also having trouble following the stream of headlines and deadlines for tariff enforcement in North America, and what that means for your specific products, two helpful tools for looking up tariffs are the Canadian government’s Tariff Finder and the US Customs HS & HTS Code Lookup Tool. We also found this useful compiled list of global tariffs by ReedSmith.

Beyond North America, the fresh produce industry is also affected by broader U.S. and global trade policies. For example, a 10% "Global Tariff" was imposed on all imports in April 2025, with higher, targeted rates for specific countries. In response, countries have levied retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports, which can have significant consequences even if they are not directly on fresh produce. Increases in steel tariffs for example will slow new greenhouse and infrastructure construction. These retaliatory measures have led to a decrease in demand for U.S. exports and added significant volatility to global markets. For instance, retaliatory tariffs from countries like China, Brazil, and India can directly affect the profitability of US farmers, forcing them to consider shifts in crop production.

The impact of these policies on the supply chain is profound, creating a dual challenge for growers and significant sourcing difficulties for buyers and retailers. Growers face a "dual squeeze" from both higher costs and diminished revenue. The tariffs increase the cost of essential inputs, such as fertilizers, tractors, and other farm equipment, as a result of tariffs on steel and parts. At the same time, they face the risk of canceled export orders and a loss of access to established markets.

For buyers and retailers, the challenge is maintaining a diverse and consistent supply of fresh produce. Tariffs on imports can disrupt the flow of popular items like avocados and berries, potentially forcing a greater reliance on domestically produced, in-season varieties. This can lead to reduced choice for consumers and significant disruptions to supply chains that have been meticulously built over decades.

Ultimately, the cost of these trade disruptions is passed on to the consumer. Analysts have predicted that tariffs could raise the cost of fresh fruits and vegetables. This is particularly burdensome for low-income communities, where rising food prices can have devastating consequences, as many households allocate a significant portion of their income to food expenses. The IFPA has warned that if consumers perceive the cost of fresh produce as too high, they may reduce consumption, which has long-term consequences for public health.

Strategic resilience: how to adapt to volatility

In a climate of continuous uncertainty, the ability of fresh produce businesses to thrive depends on a strategic shift from being reactive to proactive. Rather than simply responding to each new tariff threat, companies must build long-term resilience into their operational and financial models. The strategies for mitigating tariff-related risks are not isolated to trade policy; they are fundamental principles for building a robust and modern business.

One of the most effective operational strategies is to diversify supplier relationships. An over-reliance on a single supplier or country makes a business highly vulnerable to tariff-driven price hikes and disruptions. The analysis suggests strengthening relationships with domestic producers and exploring alternative suppliers to create greater stability. This approach not only mitigates supply chain risk but can also help businesses meet the rules of origin requirements under agreements like USMCA/CUSMA to qualify for tariff-free trade.

Smart inventory management and pricing are also essential for navigating this environment. Modern technology, such as demand forecasting software, can help businesses prevent spoilage and overstocking, which are critical for maintaining profitability. When price increases are unavoidable due to rising costs, transparency with customers is key to maintaining trust. Businesses can also use dynamic pricing, targeted discounts, or even develop private-label brands to offset rising costs without alienating consumers.

Advocacy and action

In the face of complex and often opaque trade policies, industry associations serve as the unified voice for the fresh produce sector. They translate the on-the-ground challenges of their members into actionable policy recommendations, providing a critical counterbalance to the forces of trade volatility. The IFPA has been a leading advocate, consistently urging policymakers to exempt fresh fruits and vegetables from any imposed tariffs. The organization's position is rooted in the belief that tariffs are not the most effective way to help domestic producers or to ensure the prosperity of the U.S. food supply.

The IFPA's policy agenda extends beyond just tariffs to what it views as the fundamental, structural challenges facing the industry. The organization also advocates for reforms to the H-2A farm labor program and for increased access to water in the Western U.S.. 2 This broader approach suggests that the industry's leadership sees tariffs as a symptom of a larger problem, and that a "better, more embracing, more supportive business climate" is the real path to increased food production without the need for protectionist measures.

The IFPA provides a wealth of resources to help its members navigate the trade landscape, including guidance documents, webinars, and timely regulatory updates. The organization maintains a dedicated Government Relations Team and hosts an annual Washington Conference to foster engagement with policymakers.

Similarly, the CPMA is committed to identifying and resolving trade irritants that affect the international and interprovincial movement of fresh produce, which it deems essential for the economic health of the sector. The CPMA offers members exclusive access to advocacy efforts and resources tailored to support their businesses in the Canadian marketplace.

For growers, buyers, and sellers, staying informed and supporting these efforts is a strategic business decision. By accessing the policy updates and guidance documents provided by organizations like the IFPA and CPMA, businesses can remain current on evolving regulations.

Building a resilient future

The fresh produce industry faces a unique and formidable challenge in the form of trade tariff uncertainty. The analysis shows that this uncertainty is not just a financial burden but a fundamental disruption to long-term planning, threatening the stability of global supply chains and the year-round availability of affordable, healthy food. The effects are systemic, rippling from the rising cost of farm inputs for growers to potential price increases and reduced consumption for consumers.

To navigate this volatile landscape, businesses must embrace a proactive approach. This involves a multi-pronged strategy that includes diversifying suppliers, leveraging technology for smarter inventory and pricing management, and utilizing sophisticated financial tools to mitigate costs. These measures are not merely temporary fixes for a policy problem; they are essential components of a modern, resilient business model.

In this environment, the collective voice of the industry is more critical than ever. Through organizations like the IFPA and the CPMA, businesses can unify their efforts to advocate for sound policy and build a more supportive business climate. By staying informed through these organizations' resources, contributing to their advocacy efforts, and sharing their own experiences, growers and buyers can not only weather the current climate but also play a direct role in building a more stable and profitable future for the entire fresh produce sector.